First home buyers are the rising force in a cooling residential property market, according to the latest NAB survey of industry professionals.

The December quarter survey found that first home buying owner-occupiers and investors accounted for nearly 39 per cent of new housing sales, and 31.5 per cent of established housing sales.

The proportion of first home buying owner-occupiers continued a trend of their rising market share in both new and established housing since late 2016. Nearly 29 per cent of new housing sales and 22 per cent of second-hand housing in the December quarter were to owner-occupiers who were first home buyers.

The market share of first home buying investors declined for new housing to 9.9 per cent and was flat at 9.6 per cent for existing housing. 

The NAB survey of some 300 property investors catches first home buyers the Australian Bureau of Statistics misses by counting investors and those not requiring a mortgage from an institution.

The survey suggests first home buyers are replacing foreign buyers, whose share of new property dropped to a six-year low of 8.4 per cent and 5.5 per cent of established housing.

The NAB's property confidence index softened, led down by Victoria and New South Wales, while Queensland was flat and Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory improved.

Average survey house price expectations eased, but NSW was the only state where the property experts expected prices to fall, albeit marginally – off half a per cent this year and just 0.1 per cent over the next two years.  For Australia overall, the expectation was for a 0.9 per cent rise this year and 1.3 per cent over two years.

NAB itself is forecasting Sydney house prices to fall by 2.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2019, while unit prices are predicted to ease 1.8 and 2.4 per cent, respectively.

After a 9.1 per cent rise in 2017, Melbourne house prices are tipped to firm 3.7 per cent this year and 2.2 in 2019. Melbourne units are forecast to gain 1.2 per cent this year, but give back 1.8 per cent next year.

The Brisbane forecast is for houses to gained 1.9 and 2 per cent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, but for units to fall 1.8 and 1.2 per cent.

SOURCE: www.smh.com.au