Property in Australia’s often-forgotten states is finally creeping back into the spotlight after years dominated by soaring Sydney and Melbourne prices, according to NAB’s latest quarterly residential property index, which notes a tumble in east-coast sentiment and confidence.

Australia’s property market momentum has seen a “clear shift from the eastern states towards the rest of the country”, NAB chief economist Alan Oster notes, with NSW homeowners now bracing for noticeable price falls this year.

Long-term property confidence dropped sharply from high levels, with NSW slumping 20 points – the weakest of all Australian states – while Victoria saw a 19-point fall.

House price expectations were trimmed in all states but NSW alone is now expected to see house prices fall in 2018 after years of strong growth – a 2.4 per cent drop is predicted this year and another 1.2 per cent in 2019.

“The latest survey showed a clear shift in momentum from the key eastern states towards the rest of the country.”NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster

Unit prices in Sydney and Brisbane are also expected to drop this year and next, while Melbourne is predicted to see a 1.8 per cent fall to unit prices in 2019.

“By capital city, house price growth is forecast to be solid in Melbourne and Hobart, followed by Brisbane and Adelaide. Perth is expected to stabilise, marking the beginning of a gradual turnaround for the market, while we expect to see a fall in Sydney prices for the first time since 2011,” Mr Oster said, offering a warning on further legislative changes relating to property.

“Naturally, any additional changes to government or prudential policy to address affordability or financial stability concerns are likely to have an impact on these forecasts.”

NSW also saw growth in rental returns revised down to 1 per cent from 1.5 per cent, while the property professionals surveyed by NAB expect Victoria to see the highest rental income growth in the country at 2.1 per cent, down from the previously expected 2.8 per cent.

The survey showed first home buyers continued to raise their profile in new and established housing markets in the December quarter, with their share of total demand reaching their highest level in the seven-year history of the quarterly report.

First home buyers accounted for almost two in five sales in new housing markets and around a third in established property markets.

Meanwhile the share of foreign buyers in Australian housing markets however continued to fall in the fourth quarter, dropping to a six-year low 8.4 per cent in new property markets and a five-year low 5.5 per cent in the established housing market.

“Clearly, the efforts of policymakers both domestic and offshore to stem the tide of foreign capital entering Australian property markets are bearing fruit” said Mr Oster.

The survey also offers several suburbs in each state expected to see above-average growth in the next 12 months, with Blacktown, Liverpool, Newcastle and Sydney listed in NSW.

A mixed-bag of Victorian suburbs were named: Brighton, Clarinda, Geelong, Melbourne, Melton, Seaford, South Yarra, Tarneit, Toorak and Werribee.

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But confidence in the South Australian and Northern Territory property markets bucked the trend with a 53-point gain, which NAB chief economist Alan Oster says “mirrors recent findings in our business survey which shows SA reporting above average business conditions and strong growth”. Meanwhile WA edged one point higher and Queensland lost just two points.